KYW Newsradio Team Coverage
As candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton criss-cross Pennsylvania ahead of Tuesday's primary, campaign advisers and pollsters are worried about some sizable and perplexing unknowns.
KYW's John Ostapkovich reports that while at least two major voter surveys give Sen. Clinton a 5-to-7 point lead in Tuesday's primary, a new one from Public Policy Polling of North Carolina puts Sen. Obama three points ahead.
The reason for the difference, says poll director Tom Jensen (right), is how they weighted poll responses based on predicted turnout:
"We're expecting a huge turnout in Philadelphia: new voters coming out for Barack Obama, disproportionately high black turnout, disproportionately high turnout from young people. And we're expecting that the demographics of the voters are going to end up being good for Barack Obama's chances."
Jensen says that as a basis to predict turnout, Public Policy Polling used demographic data from other states in this primary cycle rather than from Pennsylvania in prior years.
The latest Zogby poll gives Clinton a five-point lead, and Clinton's lead is seven points according to the Quinnipiac pollsters.
Complete KYW Coverage of "Decision 2008"
KYW's Tony Romeo reports that the latest Quinnipiac University poll shows, for a second straight time, that Obama’s momentum has stalled in Pennsylvania. Clinton leads Obama by seven points in their latest survey, compared to a six-point lead in a Quinnipiac poll released last week and six points in the school’s poll released April 8th.
Clay Richards is the assistant director of the Quinnipiac Polling Institute:
"I think Sen. Obama's drive was already stalled when his 'bitter' remarks came out. He got off message and has never gotten back on track.”
KYW's Larry Kane reports that there are good reasons for the uncertainty among pollsters. Some polls suggest that two thirds of the 300,000 newly-registered Democrats will support Barack Obama, but history suggests that many of them -- young voters -- tend not to show up.
A larger turnout in the western part of Pennsylvania could helps Hillary Clinton. But politicians in our region expect a record turnout in the suburban counties around Philadelphia. The size of the turnout, and where it is, is key.
A Franklin and Marshall poll has 14 percent undecided. Other polls are anywhere from 7 percent to 11 percent. And with that many undecided, anything can happen.
What has surprised many insiders is why the last-minute advertisements from both camps have turned so extremely negative.
KYW's Mike DeNardo reports that in his final Philadelphia-area campaign appearance before Tuesday's primary, Sen. Barack Obama chatted to a small group of voters at Montgomery County Community College (right).
Obama sat outside on a stool, surrounded by 45 voters on park benches. They asked him about bread-and-butter issues as the TV cameras rolled. Bobbi Portnoy, a teacher in the Perkiomen Valley School District, was among those chosen to participate:
(Portnoy:) "As of August 2008, my husband and I will have four children in coillege simultaneously."
(Obama:) "Yikes!"
(Portnoy:) "And I am a registered nurse..."
Portnoy says that meeting the candidate was an extraordinary experience:
"Surreal is the only word I can use. But I felt comfortable after a while. He was three feet from me, and I felt comfortable."
But hours before the Pennsylvania primary, Portnoy says she is still undecided.
KYW's Kim Glovas, meanwhile, reports that Sen. Clinton addressed supporters on Monday morning at a rally in Scranton, Pa. (right), one of her strongholds in the state.
On Monday evening she was scheduled to be back in Philadelphia for a 10pm rally at the Palestra, on the University of Pennsylvania campus, accompanied by her husband and daughter -- doors open at 8pm. Live coverage on KYW Newsradio 1060.
And on Sunday night, hundreds of people crowded into the Tinicum Township fire house in Essington (Delaware County), Pa. to hear former president Bill Clinton speak on behalf of his wife.
It was rock star-style cheering that greeted Bill Clinton in Essington. He started by saying there had been a lot of good -- and some silliness -- in the primary campaign in recent weeks. Then he went on:
"This election is too big to be little about, because America has two enormous challenges. One is to restore a sense of fairness and forward progress to our economy. We have terrible economic challenges, and related health care and education challenges."
Clinton said that for the last seven years there have been one set of rules for the US government and another set of rules for others, and that must change. He outlined Mrs. Clinton's platform and said his wife stands for performance, not promise.
Complete KYW Coverage of ''DECISION 2008''
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